What Japan can learn from all these military conflicts?

Another year, another crisis in the Middle East. This time, Israel and the United States dumped explosives on Iran, trying to weaken the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic. This all comes on top of the recent battles in Gaza and the multi-year war of attrition taking place in Ukraine.

In all these war zones, at least one of the belligerents insists that they are fighting to preserve their nation and protect their people from destruction. Israel’s leaders assert that they are in imminent danger, rolling out phrases like “existential crisis” and “our very survival.” You hear the same out of Ukraine. Back in March 2022, just a month after Russian soldiers dashed across the border, President Zelenskyy addressed his people, reminding them that, “We just want to save our people. We want to survive! Just survive!” Even Vladimir Putin has invoked the survival motif, warning about certain doom for his nation from encroachments by NATO, forcing him to invade Ukraine as a protective measure.

Whether such claims can be justified or not, these leaders have tapped into broadly accepted societal concerns about national survival and used those sentiments as a mandate for action. Japan, despite its official pacifist stance, can learn much from the urgency of these conflicts.

Thankfully, no other nations are threatening to destroy the Japanese people. But the nation’s leaders have raised concerns about a comparable existential threat, one that is internal rather than international in scope. This is the population crisis, known locally as shōshi-kōrei-ka (少子高齢化, “decreasing birth rate in an aging population”). Despite the famous longevity of its citizens, Japan is losing the elderly at a phenomenal rate. At the other end of the spectrum, young couples are not bringing enough children into the world to counteract the population decline.

The country first dropped below the statistical replacement level of 2.1 children per female (“total fertility rate”) way back in 1974. In the five decades since crossing that threshold, the situation has become grim, with the overall population reaching its peek in 2008. The current total fertility rate (as of 2022) stands at 1.26, and the news media regularly announces yet another record-breaking year for both population decline and low number of births. Recently, Japan’s health ministry announced that annual births dropped below 700,000 for the first time since record keeping began in 1899.

Japan as a nation is not in imminent danger of disappearing from the face of the earth. Yet the downward trend will continue for a long time unless something alters the trajectory. As with Israel and Ukraine, Japan says out loud that there is a threat to the nation and its people. But it has yet to take the second step of doing something bold about it.

In a March 2023 press conference, former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio lamented the declining birthrate, chalking the problem up to money. “Even among married families, the foremost reason for not having the number of children they desire is that child-rearing and education are expensive.” He proposed policies to advance incomes and make education more affordable.

Increasing salaries for Japanese workers is a fantastic idea. But it won’t make any impact on the declining birthrate. The worldwide trend for rich, developed nations is that birthrates decline as personal wealth and national security increase. When Japanese twentysomethings are asked about why they are not having children, they do cite the high cost of living as a factor. But the true reason that the birthrate is so low is that less value is placed on child rearing than in the past, both within families and across the nation as a whole.

Despite his focus on finances, Kishida recognized this core issue in that same press conference. He mentioned a town in Okayama Prefecture named Nagi. Though small in size—less than 6,000 souls at the time—this “miracle town” had a total fertility rate of 2.95, around twice the national average. (It has since dropped to 2.4.)

The town did provide some financial incentives to young couples—about $1,500 per birth. But that paltry gift would have almost no impact on the overall cost of raising a child in modern Japan. Instead, what made the difference was the determination by the entire community to make child rearing a priority.

In short, they simply decided to do it, no matter the difficulties, no matter the sacrifices. You can be sure that the elderly members of the community weren’t going to have any more kids. Instead, these experienced family leaders provided education and support to those still able to bring children into the world. This included things as basic as how to change diapers, and one article I read mentioned job training for young mothers. But above all else, the adults in the community were able to convince their young charges that having children was essential for their village, and more broadly for all Japan.

Instead of setting up yet another education compensation scheme that will have no impact on national birth rates, the current crop of government leaders should look to Nagi town, and to the Israelis and Ukrainians. These groups understand that the situation is dire, and nothing short of a full mobilization for battle will turn the tide. Prime Minister Ishiba and the Diet need to set clear expectations for addressing the declining birth rate. They must convince the youth of the nation that valuing marriage and raising children are essential for the future of Japan, even when such things are difficult, even when such actions are costly. This can only happen by incorporating these values into the education curriculum, and by having adults in local communities and in major cities take up the cause.

Long-term foreign residents also have a role to play. Naturally, the import of young families from other nations will prop up Japan’s fertility rate. But many of these new arrivals come from nations where the raising of families is still a top priority. Many immigrants move to advanced nations like Japan because they see something exciting on horizon just by living here. This outlook, when multiplied through the growing base of foreign residents, can stimulate the local population as well.

Beyond government action and support from immigrants, the sovereign citizens of Japan have the ultimate responsibility for ensuring the stability and longevity of the nation. They can push their leaders to erect the right kinds of policies that promote family growth instead of just throwing money at yet another problem. They can come alongside the immigrant community, knowing that increasing the number of children will lead to a healthier Japan, regardless of DNA. Most importantly, they can follow the example of Nagi town and begin taking a leadership role in every community, from the tiniest hamlet to the sprawl of Tokyo.

[Image Credits: Ivan Samkov]